US-Iran War Day 13: Oil Tankers Burning, Hormuz Blockade Tightens — What It Means for India
Story By -
Jack Miller 2026-03-13 US Iran war, Iran war day 13 119
The war that nobody wanted but everybody feared is now two weeks old. On Day 13 of the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, the conflict has stopped being just a Middle Eastern story. It has become a global energy emergency — and India, sitting thousands of kilometres away, is being pulled deeper into its consequences with every passing hour.
As of March 13, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Oil has crossed $100 a barrel. Iran's new Supreme Leader has vowed to keep the waterway blocked. Iraqi oil ports have suspended operations. Gulf airports have been struck. And an Indian crew member has been killed on a US-owned tanker in Iraqi waters.
This is no longer background noise. This is a five-alarm crisis.
How We Got Here: The War That Changed Everything
The conflict began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched what has been described as "Operation Epic Fury" — a coordinated series of airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, and military command. The strikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the early hours of the campaign.
What the US National Security Council apparently did not fully account for was Iran's willingness — and capability — to shut down the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. Multiple sources have since confirmed that the Pentagon significantly underestimated this risk while planning the operation. Treasury and Energy officials were present at some planning meetings, but their warnings about worst-case economic scenarios were treated as secondary.
Iran closed the strait. Not with mines, not with a formal blockade declaration — but through relentless attacks on any commercial vessel attempting to pass through. The result has been the same: a choke hold on one of the world's most critical energy arteries.
What Happened on Day 13 — March 12, 2026
The 13th day of the war marked a visible escalation across the region:
Iraqi waters attacked for the first time. Two oil tankers — a Palau-flagged vessel and a Marshall Islands-flagged ship — were set ablaze off Iraq's coast near the port of Basra. At least one crew member was killed, and 38 others were rescued. An Indian crew member on a US-owned tanker was also reported killed, confirmed by the Indian Embassy in Baghdad. Iraq shut down all oil terminal operations immediately after the attacks.
Iran's new Supreme Leader speaks. Mojtaba Khamenei — who assumed the role after his father was killed in the initial US-Israeli strikes — issued his first public statement. It was broadcast on Iranian state television, his photograph on the screen while someone else read the statement aloud. The message was unambiguous: the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed as a "tool of pressure." He also called on Gulf nations hosting US military bases to shut them down "as soon as possible."
Gulf-wide attacks continue. Kuwait's international airport was damaged in a drone strike. Dubai saw a drone hit a building near the luxury Creek Harbour district. Bahrain's fuel storage facilities were targeted. Saudi Arabia intercepted drones heading toward the Shaybah oilfield in the Empty Quarter desert. Oman's port of Salalah suffered damage to fuel storage tanks.
US military aircraft lost. An American Boeing KC-135 aerial refuelling tanker crashed in western Iraq, killing four of the six crew members on board. A second KC-135 was damaged but managed to land in Tel Aviv. Officials believe the two aircraft may have been involved in a mid-air collision.
Oil hits $100 a barrel. Goldman Sachs revised its oil price forecast upward by 20% for 2026. The International Energy Agency, in a rare emergency statement, described the Hormuz disruption as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market" — larger even than the 1973 oil shock. Global oil supply was projected to drop by 8 million barrels per day this month alone.
The IEA's Emergency Response
In an extraordinary coordinated move, member countries of the International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves into global markets — the largest such release in history. The United States alone committed to contributing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
This is significant context: SPR releases are normally used in very limited, carefully calibrated quantities to calm short-term market disruptions. Releasing 400 million barrels collectively is an acknowledgment that the disruption is neither short-term nor small. It is a crisis management measure, not a solution.
Analysts have been blunt: even if the war ends tomorrow, the Strait of Hormuz will not immediately reopen. Tanker operators, insurers, and shipping companies need confidence before they route vessels through a waterway where 16 ships have already been attacked in two weeks.
The Iran Peace Conditions
Even as the fighting continues, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has publicly outlined three conditions for ending the war:
- Recognition of Iran's legitimate rights in the region
- Payment of reparations for damages caused by US-Israeli strikes
- Firm international guarantees against future military aggression
The United States has not formally responded to these conditions. President Trump has continued to send contradictory signals — saying the US has "won" while also stating the country needs to "finish the job." His national security team appears divided on the path forward, with the Pentagon warning that escorting oil tankers through the strait is "currently too dangerous."
Iran's civilian casualties now stand at over 1,300 people killed by US-Israeli strikes, according to the Iranian Red Crescent. The US military is investigating one particularly devastating incident — a missile strike on an Iranian elementary school that killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers. Preliminary findings suggest the strike resulted from outdated intelligence about a nearby naval base.
India in the Crossfire: What This Means for Us
India does not have boots on the ground. India has not taken a side in this conflict. But India is deeply exposed to its consequences — and that exposure is getting worse each day.
The oil price shock: India imports roughly 85% of its crude oil needs. With oil above $100 a barrel and the Strait of Hormuz closed, every barrel that reaches India now costs significantly more and must travel a longer route — around the Cape of Good Hope or via alternative pipeline arrangements. This is already showing up in rising LPG prices and fuel cost pressures across India.
The Indian crew member killed: The death of an Indian seafarer on a tanker in Iraqi waters is a stark reminder that India's maritime workforce — one of the largest in the world — is directly in harm's way. At last count, over 670 Indian seafarers were aboard vessels west of the Hormuz strait, in the active war zone.
The Indian waiver on Russian oil: The US Treasury has granted Indian refiners a 30-day licence to purchase Russian crude currently stranded at sea — a measure described by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as being designed to "keep oil flowing into the global market." This is a temporary relief valve, not a long-term fix.
The Chabahar Port question: India has a $370 million agreement to develop Iran's Chabahar Port terminal — a project of enormous strategic importance for India's access to Central Asia. A US sanctions waiver for that deal expires on April 26, 2026. With the war ongoing and US-Iran relations in complete breakdown, that waiver renewal looks increasingly unlikely.
Stock market and currency pressure: Indian markets have been volatile. The rupee faces pressure as oil import costs rise and foreign institutional investors move toward safer assets. Energy-intensive industries — fertilisers, ceramics, petrochemicals — are facing higher input costs that will eventually filter through to consumers.
A War India Cannot Ignore
India has traditionally maintained strategic ambiguity in Middle Eastern conflicts, balancing relationships with both the Arab Gulf states and Iran, while maintaining ties with the United States and Israel. That balancing act has never been more difficult than it is today.
The opposition has staged protests in Parliament over the LPG crisis. Airlines are rerouting flights. Refinery operators are scrambling for alternative crude sources. And every morning, the news brings fresh reports of attacks, explosions, and rising prices.
The war between the US, Israel, and Iran may be taking place thousands of kilometres away. But its consequences — in your fuel bill, at the gas agency, in the cost of your groceries — are arriving at your doorstep, right now.
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